by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2022 10:37:00 AM
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller National Index up 18.8% Year-over-year in December
Note that the months-of-supply is not seasonally adjusted.
In December, the months-of-supply was at 1.7 months, and the Case-Shiller National Index (SA) increased 1.31% month-over-month. The black arrow points to the December 2021 dot. In the January existing home sales report, the NAR reported months-of-supply decreased to a record low 1.6 months in January.
My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.98% in August was probably the peak YoY growth rate, however, since the normal level of inventory is probably in the 4 to 6 months range – we’d have to see a significant increase in inventory to sharply slow price increases, and that is why I’m focused on inventory!
Note: I’ll have more on real prices, price-to-rent and affordability tomorrow.emphasis added