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Early Q4 GDP Tracking

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2022 02:09:00 PM

It is early in Q4 … we will have more estimates next week.

From BofA:

[Forecast 1.0% in Q4] Overall, the data since our last weekly publication pushed down our 3Q GDP tracking estimate from 3.1% q/q saar (seasonally adjusted annual rate) to 3.0% q/q saar.
Looking ahead to next week, there are a number of data releases that could affect 3Q tracking, including retail sales on Wednesday, which will also kick-off our 4Q tracking. [Nov 11th estimate]emphasis added

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.0 percent on November 9, up from 3.6 percent on November 3. [Nov 9th estimate]

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