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FOMC Projections and Press Conference

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2022 02:11:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections. In December, most participants expected three rate hikes in 2022. Now, participants expect 7 rate hikes in 2022.

Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to barely increase in Q1 2022, and to be in the 2% to 3% range for 2022. This was a sharp reduction in Wall Street growth forecasts, and the FOMC lowered their 2022 forecast down significantly to similar growth rates.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1Projection Date202220232024Mar 20222.5 to 3.02.1 to 2.51.8 to 2.0Dec 20213.6 to 4.52.0 to 2.51.8 to 2.0

1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.8% in February. So, there was a slight reduction in the unemployment rate forecast for Q4 2022.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2Projection Date202220232024Mar 20223.4 to 3.63.3 to 3.63.2 to 3.7Dec 20213.4 to 3.73.2 to 3.63.2 to 3.7

2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of January 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.1% from January 2021. The FOMC revised up sharply their inflation projections for 2022.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1Projection Date202220232024Mar 20224.1 to 4.72.3 to 3.02.1 to 2.4Dec 20212.2 to 3.02.1 to 2.52.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation was up 5.2% in January year-over-year and the FOMC revised up their projections.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1Projection Date202220232024Mar 20223.9 to 4.42.4 to 3.02.1 to 2.4Dec 20212.5 to 3.02.1 to 2.42.0 to 2.2

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