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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

by Calculated Risk on 10/10/2022 08:21:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides.

—– Airlines: Transportation Security Administration —–

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

This data is as of October 8th.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).

The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

The 7-day average is down 9.1% from the same day in 2019 (90.9% of 2019). (Dashed line)

Air travel – as a percent of 2019 – had picked up towards the end of Summer, but is now, off about 10% from 2019 like earlier in the year.
—– Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo —–

This data shows domestic box office for each week and the median for the years 2016 through 2019 (dashed light blue).

Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022.
The data is from BoxOfficeMojo through October 6th.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Movie ticket sales were at $88 million last week, down about 35% from the median for the week.

—– Hotel Occupancy: STR —–

This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

This data is through Oct 1st. The occupancy rate was down 2.4% compared to the same week in 2019.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to the median rate for the previous 20 years (Blue).

Notes: Y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

—– Gasoline Supplied: Energy Information Administration —–

This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline supplied compared to the same week of 2019.

Blue is for 2020. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

As of September 30th, gasoline supplied was up 3.6% compared to the same week in 2019.

Recently gasoline supplied has been running below 2019 and 2021 levels – and sometimes below 2020. This is only the 2nd week this year that gasoline supplied was above 2019 levels.

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