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Friday: Employment Report

by Calculated Risk on 1/06/2022 07:23:00 PM

My December Employment Preview

Goldman December Payrolls Preview

Friday:
o At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for December. There were 120 thousand jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. The consensus is for 400 thousand jobs added in December, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.1%.

And on COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
Today
Week
Ago
Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated
62.4%

>=70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)
207.0

>=2321
New Cases per Day3?
586,391
315,851
<=5,0002
Hospitalized3?
95,250
67,842
<=3,0002
Deaths per Day3?
1,245
1,088
<=502
1 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of positive tests reported.

New cases are at record levels. It appears likely hospitalizations will exceed the previous 7-day average record of 124,031 a year ago.
Fortunately, deaths are still well below the previous 7-day average record of 3,421 in January 2021.

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