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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in October

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2022 01:16:00 PM

From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October

he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2. During the month, the DMI continued its steady ascent, with the commercial component rising 13%, and the institutional component ticking up 2.9%.

Commercial planning was bolstered by a solid increase in office and hotel projects. The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 28% higher than in October 2021, the commercial component was up 29%, and institutional planning was 25% higher.

“The sustained upward trajectory in the Momentum Index shows optimism from owners and developers that projects will continue to move forward, even with rising concerns of an economic recession,” said Sarah Martin, senior economist for Dodge Construction Network. “Specific nonresidential segments, such as data centers and life science laboratories, have thrived in 2022 and continue to support strength in planning activity. As we move into next year, however, labor and supply shortages, high material costs and high interest rates will likely temper planning activity back to a more moderate pace.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 199.7 in October, up from 182.2 in September.

According to Dodge, this index leads “construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year”. This index suggests a solid pickup in commercial real estate construction into 2023.

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