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NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 82 in February

by Calculated Risk on 2/16/2022 10:09:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 82, down from 83 in January. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Eases on Supply-Side Constraints

Despite strong buyer demand, builder sentiment continued to slip in February as the industry grapples with ongoing building material production bottlenecks that are raising construction costs and delaying projects.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved one point lower to 82 in February, marking the second straight month that confidence levels have declined by a single point, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Despite these monthly declines, the HMI has posted very solid readings at or above the 80-point mark for the past five months.

“Production disruptions are so severe that many builders are waiting months to receive cabinets, garage doors, countertops and appliances,” said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter. “These delivery delays are raising construction costs and pricing prospective buyers out of the market. Policymakers must make it a priority to address supply chain issues that are harming housing affordability.”

“Residential construction costs are up 21% on a year over year basis, and these higher development costs have hit first-time buyers particularly hard,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Higher interest rates in 2022 will further reduce housing affordability even as demand remains solid due to a lack of resale inventory.”

The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased one point to 90, the gauge measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 80, and the component charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a four-point decline to 65.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased three points to 76, the West rose one point to 89, the Midwest fell one point to 73 and the South edged one point lower to 86.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was at the consensus forecast, and a strong reading.

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