by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2022 10:09:00 AM
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 603 thousand.
The previous three months were revised down, combined.
The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.
The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).
In September 2022 (red column), 49 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 58 thousand homes were sold in September.
The all-time high for September was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011.
This was slightly above expectations, however sales in the three previous months were revised down, combined. I’ll have more later today.