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New Home Sales Increase to 632,000 Annual Rate in October

by Calculated Risk on 11/23/2022 10:08:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 632 thousand.

The previous two months were revised down.

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 7.5 percent above the revised September rate of 588,000, but is 5.8 percent below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in October to 8.9 months from 9.4 months in September.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 470,000. This represents a supply of 8.9 months at the current sales rate.”

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In October 2022 (red column), 48 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 51 thousand homes were sold in October.

The all-time high for October was 105 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for October was 23 thousand in 2010.

This was above expectations, however sales in the two previous months were revised down. I’ll have more later today.

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