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Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 20 States in October

by Calculated Risk on 11/25/2022 09:15:00 AM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for October 2022. Over the
past three months, the indexes increased in 36 states, decreased in 11 states, and remained stable in three, for a three-month
diffusion index of 50. Additionally, in the past month, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 22 states, and
remained stable in eight, for a one-month diffusion index of -4. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also
developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index increased 0.7 percent
over the past three months and 0.1 percent in October
emphasis added

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.


Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three-month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the Pandemic and also at the worst of the Great Recession.

The map is mostly positive on a three-month basis.

Source: Philly Fed.

And here is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed.

This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In October 23 states had increasing activity including minor increases.

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