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Q1 GDP Forecasts: Moving Up to Around 2%

by Calculated Risk on 2/18/2022 01:45:00 PM

Here are a few early forecasts for Q1 GDP.

From BofA:

In the second release of 4Q GDP, we expect a revision upwards to 7.5% qoq saar growth from 6.9%. We are now tracking 2.5% for 1Q (prev 2.0%), following the retail sales beat [February 17 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.0% (qoq ar). [February 17 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on February 17, down from 1.5 percent on February 16. After this morning’s housing starts report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of first-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 4.7 percent to 0.3 percent. [February 17 estimate]

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