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Q1 GDP Forecasts: Slightly Positive

by Calculated Risk on 2/11/2022 11:28:00 AM

Here are a few early forecasts for Q1 GDP.

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking estimate to 2.0% qoq saar [February 4 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.5% (qoq ar). We also left our past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q4 unchanged at +7.1% (qoq ar). [February 9 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2022 is 0.7 percent on February 9, unchanged from February 8 after rounding. After this morning’s wholesale trade release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -2.40 percentage points to -2.41 percentage points. [February 9 estimate]

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