by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2022 09:54:00 AM
Here are two holiday retail sales forecasts. One from the National Retail Federation (NRF), and another based on October seasonal retail hiring as described in Retail: October Seasonal Hiring vs. Holiday Retail Sales
First from the NRF: NRF Predicts Healthy Holiday Sales as Consumers Navigate Economic Headwinds
Here is a graph from the NRF showing the year-over-year change in retail sales in November and December (ex-automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants). This is NOT seasonally adjusted, and just for November and December.
My approach below uses real retail sales for Q4 (October, November and December) adjusted with CPI.
Retailers hired 163 thousand workers Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) net in October. This was down from the previous two years and suggests lower increase in real retail sales this holiday season than the previous two years -but still solid.
Note that in the early ’90s, retailers started hiring seasonal workers earlier – and the trend towards hiring earlier has continued.
The following scatter graph is for the years 2005 through 2021 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4).
NOTE: The dot in the upper right – with real Retail sales up almost 10% YoY is for 2020 – when retail sales soared due to the pandemic spending on goods (service spending was soft).